As of June , despite vaccines being distributed and other mitigation processes, more cases more cases are being recorded and the tone is generally pessimistic as more areas begin to bring back restrictions.
Our 2021 forecast updated to include COVID-19 impacts is:
While not as materially meaningful as compared to prior years, we are seeing full year 2021 as compared to full year 2020 showing growth in revenue of between +15% and +20% nationally. This is due to the easier comparisons for 2021 versus 2020. Conversely, as compared to 2019, we see little to maybe ten percent overall growth. Keep in mind that 2019 was the best year ever for many states for overall gaming results. We feel that results by late 2022 into early 2023 should make return to 2019 levels.
For states with existing gaming the declines in 2020 revenue as compared to 2019 was an average decline (-37%) and range of between -12% to -57% as certain regions harder hit than others. For example, NY closed for nearly six consecutive months. Both VA and KY both are relatively new entrants, and their gains are extreme outliers.
In 2021 from a simple math perspective, for each month opened when the same month in 2020 was closed, the increase will be +8%. This will cumulatively rise as each month closed passes.
Individual property results will rely heavily upon each properties state governance and the property’s ability to grasp and quickly adapt to new situations as they arise.
Kentucky (racetracks) and Virginia (Racetracks): The Historic Horse Racing machines are in multiple locations and growing dramatically in revenue. Kentucky and Virginia appear to be slowing some of Maryland’s historic high growth and taking directly from West Virginia. Arkansas opened its third property and all three have been changed over to casinos. For 2021 gas prices are rising steeply and are nearly $1.00 more per gallon than in 2020.